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ponczyk
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x535c…96ba with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
17
lifetime
PnL per $
-0%
historical realized
Win rate
67.6%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$150.0K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 17 resolved trades · -0% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
95
Distinct markets
54
Volume (90d)
$649.8K
avg $6,840 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$191.1K / $458.7K
net direction
Recent trades
last 95 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 03:16 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.912 | $1,094 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 09:13 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.230 | $3,737 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:35 AM | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.935 | $10.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:34 AM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $10.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 08:21 AM | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL NO | 0.934 | $1,256 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 04:09 PM | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $7,022 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 09:58 AM | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? | SELL YES | 0.600 | $11.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 12, 01:29 PM | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,179 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 04:53 AM | Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12? | SELL YES | 0.360 | $3,963 | — (SELL) |
| May 12, 04:47 AM | Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12? | SELL YES | 0.380 | $2,863 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 01:51 PM | Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? | BUY YES | 0.908 | $1,815 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 02:15 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,139 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 01:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $2,276 | — (SELL) |
| May 2, 09:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $2,228 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 08:24 PM | Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste | BUY YES | 0.262 | $2,014 | Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 28, 02:26 PM | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | SELL YES | 0.360 | $68.4K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 28, 02:19 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.155 | $5,161 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 27, 01:16 PM | Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka | SELL YES | 0.940 | $22.0K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 27, 12:51 PM | Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka | BUY YES | 0.790 | $9,164 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 03:01 PM | Rockets vs. Lakers | SELL | 0.640 | $2,297 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 09:03 PM | 0x22138ac9 | SELL | 0.300 | $1,129 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 11:21 AM | 0x22138ac9 | SELL | 0.270 | $8,254 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 07:22 PM | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez | SELL | 0.640 | $1,312 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 07:19 PM | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez | SELL | 0.550 | $2,499 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 06:56 PM | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez | BUY | 0.788 | $30.6K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 06:46 PM | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez | SELL | 0.506 | $6,208 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 06:30 PM | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez | BUY | 0.720 | $1,428 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 11:26 AM | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Elise Mertens | SELL | 0.651 | $8,701 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 16, 03:33 AM | 0x6263524a | SELL | 0.790 | $2,806 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 07:59 PM | 0x7ee56fa6 | SELL NO | 0.700 | $2,368 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 14, 01:22 PM | 0x1f55ab84 | SELL | 0.990 | $1,980 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 14, 01:19 PM | 0x1f55ab84 | SELL | 0.930 | $4,703 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 14, 11:39 AM | 0x1f55ab84 | BUY | 0.984 | $1,040 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 02:27 AM | 0xb1a0c0e3 | SELL | 0.682 | $4,425 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 03:06 PM | 0x0dabf5b2 | BUY | 0.700 | $1,005 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 02:32 PM | 0x0dabf5b2 | BUY | 0.318 | $8,585 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 12, 01:21 PM | 0x0dabf5b2 | BUY | 0.630 | $1,702 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 02:58 PM | 0xc76bc114 | SELL | 0.953 | $2,834 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 02:51 PM | 0xc76bc114 | SELL | 0.935 | $4,807 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 02:48 PM | 0xc76bc114 | BUY | 0.927 | $1,320 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 02:42 PM | 0xc76bc114 | SELL | 0.950 | $1,480 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 02:38 PM | 0xc76bc114 | BUY | 0.940 | $5,630 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 02:08 PM | 0xc76bc114 | BUY | 0.950 | $5,277 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 01:49 PM | 0xc76bc114 | SELL | 0.920 | $9,200 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 12:03 PM | 0x24b24e24 | SELL | 0.950 | $1,350 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 12:01 PM | 0x24b24e24 | SELL | 0.940 | $1,624 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 11:52 AM | 0x24b24e24 | SELL | 0.923 | $2,939 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 11:47 AM | 0x24b24e24 | BUY | 0.920 | $2,753 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 04:31 AM | 0xd793740e | BUY NO | 0.320 | $4,301 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 10, 03:28 PM | 0x5a441df7 | BUY YES | 0.730 | $3,965 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 10, 03:21 PM | 0xd23f7e79 | SELL | 0.440 | $1,142 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 10, 03:19 PM | 0xd23f7e79 | BUY | 0.500 | $1,970 | — |
| Apr 10, 02:38 PM | 0xd0435390 | SELL | 0.935 | $2,061 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 9, 03:08 PM | 0xee4d1648 | SELL | 0.861 | $8,610 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 9, 10:45 AM | 0x24681f2d | BUY | 0.961 | $1,409 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 11:20 AM | 0xb3edbaae | SELL | 0.538 | $1,230 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 10:52 AM | 0x6a8e661d | SELL | 0.662 | $18.7K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 10:28 AM | 0xb3edbaae | BUY | 0.860 | $1,713 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 04:20 PM | Trump out as President by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.940 | $9,400 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 11:08 AM | 0xdb71051c | BUY | 0.961 | $9,503 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 07:52 AM | 0xdec60e13 | SELL | 0.661 | $1,084 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 07:51 AM | 0xdec60e13 | SELL | 0.680 | $1,185 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 01:50 AM | 0x3eb33507 | BUY | 0.715 | $2,230 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 01:44 AM | 0x3eb33507 | BUY | 0.790 | $1,463 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 01:27 AM | 0x3eb33507 | BUY | 0.780 | $1,550 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 01:02 AM | 0x3eb33507 | BUY | 0.780 | $1,987 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 06:06 PM | 0x5d62c7c6 | SELL | 0.850 | $13.0K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 06:03 PM | 0x5d62c7c6 | SELL | 0.830 | $45.1K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 05:26 PM | 0x22259c08 | SELL | 0.540 | $2,042 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 10:39 AM | 0x4d259b3a | SELL | 0.903 | $1,057 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 02:10 AM | 0x05eec7f9 | SELL | 0.790 | $1,331 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 02:07 AM | 0x05eec7f9 | SELL | 0.754 | $6,254 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 02:06 AM | 0x05eec7f9 | BUY | 0.710 | $1,197 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 03:12 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.800 | $3,148 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 02:50 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.810 | $4,544 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 11:18 AM | 0x773abaa5 | SELL NO | 0.820 | $1,420 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 01:23 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $10.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 01:01 PM | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.919 | $6,433 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 12:51 PM | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.918 | $3,949 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 12:14 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $10.7K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 02:37 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $4,800 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 09:13 AM | 0xc5300759 | BUY YES | 0.776 | $1,191 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 01:15 AM | 0xc4aca144 | SELL | 0.342 | $1,559 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 05:04 PM | 0x36815bf4 | SELL | 0.250 | $45.0K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 04:31 PM | 0x36815bf4 | SELL | 0.740 | $4,884 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 10:22 AM | 0x36815bf4 | SELL | 0.260 | $49.4K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 05:41 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY NO | 0.964 | $10.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 05:36 AM | 0x337e5c84 | BUY NO | 0.995 | $10,000 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 01:23 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $2,670 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 25, 03:40 PM | 0xa8e8cdf6 | SELL NO | 0.184 | $3,914 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 25, 01:39 PM | 0x4befb52f | SELL NO | 0.930 | $2,790 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 25, 12:40 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $3,201 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 25, 12:25 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL YES | 0.180 | $4,464 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 24, 05:30 PM | 0x710bcdc2 | BUY NO | 0.989 | $19.8K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 05:28 PM | 0x710bcdc2 | BUY NO | 0.979 | $1,889 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
Markets active in
54 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x36815bf4 | — | 3 | $99.3K | $-99,284 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | Other | 1 | $68.4K | $-68,403 |
| 0x5d62c7c6 | — | 2 | $58.1K | $-58,095 |
| Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez | Sports | 5 | $42.0K | +$22.0K |
| Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka | Other | 2 | $31.2K | $-12,866 |
| 0xc76bc114 | — | 7 | $30.5K | $-6,094 |
| 0x710bcdc2 | — | 2 | $21.7K | +$21.7K |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Politics | 2 | $21.5K | $-120 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Other | 3 | $21.1K | $-287 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Other | 4 | $20.3K | $-334 |
| 0x6a8e661d | — | 1 | $18.7K | $-18,733 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Other | 2 | $14.8K | +$5,200 |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? | Other | 1 | $11.5K | $-11,529 |
| 0x0dabf5b2 | — | 3 | $11.3K | +$11.3K |
| 0x337e5c84 | — | 1 | $10.0K | +$10.0K |
| 0xdb71051c | — | 1 | $9,503 | +$9,503 |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | Politics | 1 | $9,400 | $-9,400 |
| 0x22138ac9 | — | 2 | $9,383 | $-9,383 |
| 0x05eec7f9 | — | 3 | $8,782 | $-6,389 |
| Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Elise Mertens | Sports | 1 | $8,701 | $-8,701 |
| 0x24b24e24 | — | 4 | $8,666 | $-3,159 |
| 0xee4d1648 | — | 1 | $8,610 | $-8,610 |
| 0x1f55ab84 | — | 3 | $7,723 | $-5,642 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Other | 2 | $7,692 | $-7,692 |
| 0x3eb33507 | — | 4 | $7,229 | +$7,229 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? | Other | 1 | $7,022 | +$7,022 |
| Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12? | Other | 2 | $6,826 | $-6,826 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Tech | 1 | $5,161 | $-5,161 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Other | 2 | $4,504 | $-49 |
| 0xb1a0c0e3 | — | 1 | $4,425 | $-4,425 |
Showing top 30 by volume.