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Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x441d…544d with our methodology badges per row.

0x441d58226c2ba9ca4b36a0987e8c69d5d3e2544d·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
12
lifetime
PnL per $
+23%
historical realized
Win rate
81.8%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$62.5K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)
84
Distinct markets
31
Volume (90d)
$290.6K
avg $3,459 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$225.0K / $65.6K
net direction

Recent trades

last 84 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 9, 02:57 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.660$11.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 01:46 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.786$1,808Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 12:46 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.224$2,547Conviction tier
Jun 6, 03:17 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.360$2,788Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 6, 02:55 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL NO0.260$1,747— (SELL)
Jun 6, 02:55 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.259$1,609— (SELL)
Jun 6, 02:36 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.340$1,069— (SELL)
Jun 6, 01:10 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.500$26.8K— (SELL)
Jun 4, 02:41 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.393$1,029Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 4, 02:39 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.369$11.1KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 4, 02:39 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.369$7,380Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 4, 02:36 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.369$7,378Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 4, 01:07 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.649$3,612Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 12:18 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?BUY NO0.440$10.1K
May 29, 05:05 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?BUY YES0.407$1,429
May 29, 01:53 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.186$1,172Killed band — neutral expectation
May 25, 02:20 AMWill the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?BUY YES0.694$4,856Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 12:42 AMWill the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?BUY YES0.870$24.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 01:45 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.700$4,791Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 01:13 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.638$7,532Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:33 AMWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?BUY NO0.790$1,288Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 02:11 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?BUY YES0.508$1,029
May 21, 02:02 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.520$2,148
May 21, 01:15 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.623$4,544Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 02:48 AMWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.965$1,423Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 02:45 AMWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?BUY NO0.680$6,866Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 02:45 AMWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?SELL YES0.320$3,189— (SELL)
May 20, 02:04 AMWill the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?BUY NO0.460$7,309
May 20, 02:03 AMWill the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?SELL YES0.540$1,090— (SELL)
May 19, 03:21 AMWill the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?SELL NO0.999$4,036— (SELL)
May 19, 03:18 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.744$5,211Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 03:18 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.567$1,633
May 19, 03:13 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.501$2,390— (SELL)
May 19, 03:07 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.700$1,338Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 03:05 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.472$1,066
May 17, 01:43 AMWill the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?BUY NO0.911$1,294Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 01:38 AMWill the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?BUY NO0.911$9,110Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 12:41 AMWill the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?BUY NO0.983$6,485Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 11:30 PMWill the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?BUY NO0.939$1,409Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 03:06 AMWill the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?BUY YES0.398$5,231Killed band — neutral expectation
May 11, 02:00 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.195$1,001— (SELL)
May 10, 01:39 AMWill the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?SELL YES0.380$2,252— (SELL)
May 9, 01:38 AMWill the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?BUY YES0.520$1,995
May 7, 02:03 AMWill the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?SELL YES0.130$2,385— (SELL)
May 7, 12:11 AMWill the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?BUY NO0.948$1,801Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 12:29 AMWill the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?BUY YES0.336$1,705Killed band — neutral expectation
May 5, 03:50 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.803$4,608Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 03:48 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.197$1,476— (SELL)
May 4, 01:37 AMWill the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?BUY YES0.320$3,139Killed band — neutral expectation
May 4, 01:33 AMWill the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?BUY YES0.311$1,143Killed band — neutral expectation
May 4, 01:08 AMWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL NO0.964$2,876— (SELL)
May 4, 12:20 AMWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.971$1,068Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 12:17 AMWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.969$1,938Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 12:02 AMWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.971$1,428Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 07:47 PMWill the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?BUY YES0.205$1,972Conviction tier
May 1, 06:34 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.188$1,503Killed band — neutral expectation
May 1, 03:09 AMWill the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL NO0.971$1,856— (SELL)
May 1, 02:38 AMWill the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?BUY NO0.961$1,013Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 02:34 AMWill the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.962$1,839Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 03:34 AMSpread: Spurs (-11.5)BUY YES0.870$2,442Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 02:16 AMWill the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?SELL NO0.938$2,234— (SELL)
Apr 22, 01:12 AMWill the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?SELL NO0.987$1,563— (SELL)
Apr 21, 11:33 PMWill the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?BUY NO0.948$3,295Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 03:01 AMNHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Hurricanes vs. Senators BUY0.180$5,260Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 21, 12:42 AMWill the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?BUY NO0.980$3,083Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 03:58 AMWill the Edmonton Oilers win the Pacific Division?BUY NO0.838$1,836Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 5, 12:05 AM0x09c3c088BUY NO0.910$2,093Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 11:18 PM0x652f865bSELL0.999$1,341— (SELL)
Apr 4, 11:14 PM0x51c5e5e7BUY NO0.771$1,516Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 10:41 PM0xfee70407SELL YES0.330$1,880— (SELL)
Apr 4, 10:38 PM0x51c5e5e7BUY NO0.830$1,992Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 06:49 PM0xfee70407BUY YES0.250$1,200Conviction tier
Mar 29, 12:06 AM0x09c3c088BUY YES0.143$1,341Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 28, 02:22 AM0xedffa92cBUY NO0.986$1,928Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 12:34 AM0xe285bf84BUY NO0.860$1,107Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 12:32 AM0xfee70407SELL NO0.820$1,023— (SELL)
Mar 27, 11:57 PM0xfee70407BUY NO0.800$1,036Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 02:24 AM0x2c07355bBUY NO0.983$1,720Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 02:06 AM0xf6c566e3SELL NO0.999$3,768— (SELL)
Mar 27, 01:19 AM0xa5d518ecBUY NO0.990$1,436Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 01:17 AM0xf6c566e3BUY NO0.995$3,753Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 12:03 AM0x198311c8BUY NO0.992$1,055Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 04:10 AM0xf1e520ffBUY0.798$1,311Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 02:08 AM0xf1e520ffBUY0.620$1,860Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

31 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports8$71.0K+$14.0K
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports15$42.3K+$32.0K
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Sports4$34.8K+$32.6K
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Sports6$19.1K+$14.7K
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Sports5$13.5K+$8,966
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Sports3$11.3K+$4,965
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?Sports2$11.1K+$11.1K
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Sports2$10.5K+$2,449
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports5$8,732+$2,980
0xf6c566e32$7,521$-15
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports4$7,238+$2,458
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Hurricanes vs. Senators Sports1$5,260+$5,260
0xfee704074$5,139$-667
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?Other1$4,856+$4,856
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Sports2$4,646+$1,520
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports2$3,695$-17
0x51c5e5e72$3,508+$3,508
0x09c3c0882$3,434+$3,434
0xf1e520ff2$3,171+$3,171
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Other1$2,442+$2,442
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Sports1$2,385$-2,385
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Sports1$1,972+$1,972
0xedffa92c1$1,928+$1,928
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Pacific Division?Other1$1,836+$1,836
0x2c07355b1$1,720+$1,720
0xa5d518ec1$1,436+$1,436
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?Sports1$1,429+$1,429
0x652f865b1$1,341$-1,341
0xe285bf841$1,107+$1,107
0x198311c81$1,055+$1,055

Showing top 30 by volume.