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penguinx

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x433f…a0dc with our methodology badges per row.

0x433f62d1f91768a0877171eee70e172f0bf7a0dc·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
27
lifetime
PnL per $
-27%
historical realized
Win rate
72.7%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$324.5K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 27 resolved trades · -27% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
46
Distinct markets
27
Volume (90d)
$469.4K
avg $10.2K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$315.1K / $154.3K
net direction

Recent trades

last 46 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 20, 09:59 PMWill Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?BUY NO0.998$15.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 02:37 AMWill Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?SELL NO0.995$36.2K— (SELL)
Jun 7, 12:04 AMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-06?SELL YES0.990$1,364— (SELL)
Jun 7, 12:03 AMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-06?BUY YES0.960$1,677Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 02:22 PMWill Tunisia win on 2026-06-06?BUY NO0.999$6,878Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:54 PMWill Malta win on 2026-06-05?BUY YES0.999$1,313Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:36 PMWill Hungary win on 2026-06-05?BUY YES0.999$20.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 08:36 PMWill Italy win on 2026-06-03?BUY YES0.990$10.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 06:33 PMWill Norway win on 2026-06-01?BUY YES0.997$2,828Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 06:22 PMWill Norway win on 2026-06-01?SELL YES0.999$42.5K— (SELL)
Jun 1, 06:04 PMWill Norway win on 2026-06-01?BUY YES0.992$5,099Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 05:53 PMWill Norway win on 2026-06-01?BUY YES0.993$1,532Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 05:53 PMWill Norway win on 2026-06-01?BUY YES0.993$6,991Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 05:53 PMWill Norway win on 2026-06-01?BUY YES0.993$9,036Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 05:52 PMWill Norway win on 2026-06-01?BUY YES0.992$1,531Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 05:51 PMWill Norway win on 2026-06-01?BUY YES0.992$4,588Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 05:51 PMWill Norway win on 2026-06-01?BUY YES0.992$9,176Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 05:51 PMWill Norway win on 2026-06-01?BUY YES0.991$6,037Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 02:43 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.990$1,590Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 06:46 PMWill Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?BUY YES0.999$20.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 06:02 PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?BUY NO0.987$101.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 05:50 PMWill Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24?SELL NO0.860$2,587— (SELL)
May 21, 08:54 PMWill SC Heerenveen win on 2026-05-21?BUY NO0.999$3,947Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 03:03 PMWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?BUY YES0.989$1,773Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 02:59 PMWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?BUY YES0.985$1,313Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 01:40 PMWill Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-09?BUY YES0.280$1,563Cheap band — no rep
May 9, 01:40 PMWill Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-09?BUY YES0.280$2,408Cheap band — no rep
May 9, 12:52 PMWill Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?BUY YES0.330$2,086Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 26, 12:34 AMKnicks vs. HawksBUY YES0.999$19.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 09:15 PM0xde93fe05SELL0.995$20.6K— (SELL)
Apr 19, 08:28 PM0xde93fe05BUY0.990$3,722Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 10:24 PM0xe46b6ddaBUY0.990$5,988Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 10:23 PM0xe46b6ddaBUY0.980$5,130Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 08:54 PMNew York Mets vs. Chicago CubsSELL0.999$1,624— (SELL)
Apr 18, 08:51 PMNew York Mets vs. Chicago CubsBUY0.995$1,593Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 12:36 AM0x1c58e09fSELL0.999$13.6K— (SELL)
Apr 12, 12:31 AM0x1c58e09fBUY0.990$13.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 01:18 AM0x3fcbbda4SELL0.993$13.5K— (SELL)
Apr 11, 01:16 AM0x3fcbbda4BUY0.990$13.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 11:52 PM0xd577aff4SELL0.020$1,363— (SELL)
Apr 8, 11:35 PM0xd577aff4BUY0.950$2,150Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 6, 02:07 AM0xcc196612SELL0.999$12.1K— (SELL)
Apr 6, 01:54 AM0x67c4c5a2SELL0.951$8,820— (SELL)
Apr 4, 12:17 AM0x2b3fc437BUY0.987$2,736Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 02:35 PM0x6da6c9eeBUY0.800$4,660Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 02:34 PM0x6da6c9eeBUY0.810$3,461Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

27 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?Other1$101.0K+$101.0K
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01?Other10$89.3K+$4,358
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?Other1$36.2K$-36,212
0x1c58e09f—2$27.1K$-123
0x3fcbbda4—2$27.1K$-37
0xde93fe05—2$24.3K$-16,830
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05?Other1$20.7K+$20.7K
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?Tech1$20.5K+$20.5K
Knicks vs. HawksOther1$19.6K+$19.6K
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?Other1$15.3K+$15.3K
0xcc196612—1$12.1K$-12,134
0xe46b6dda—2$11.1K+$11.1K
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03?Other1$10.2K+$10.2K
0x67c4c5a2—1$8,820$-8,820
0x6da6c9ee—2$8,120+$8,120
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06?Other1$6,878+$6,878
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-09?Other2$3,972+$3,972
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-05-21?Other1$3,947+$3,947
0xd577aff4—2$3,513+$787
New York Mets vs. Chicago CubsOther2$3,217$-31
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?Other2$3,086+$3,086
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06?Other2$3,041+$313
0x2b3fc437—1$2,736+$2,736
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24?Other1$2,587$-2,587
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?Other1$2,086+$2,086
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports1$1,590+$1,590
Will Malta win on 2026-06-05?Other1$1,313+$1,313