| Jun 10, 11:28 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $6,131 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:27 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? | SELL NO | 0.982 | $10.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 06:05 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? | SELL NO | 0.986 | $2,161 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 02:53 AM | Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $1,469 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 06:05 PM | Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14? | BUY NO | 0.951 | $1,242 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 04:42 AM | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $19.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 04:31 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $1,857 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 03:17 AM | Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $5,987 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 04:29 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $17.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 04:27 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? | BUY NO | 0.978 | $20.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 04:26 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $28.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 04:25 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.973 | $9,827 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 02:58 AM | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by 70% or more? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $8,070 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 02:58 AM | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 60% and 70%? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $2,838 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 04:51 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.967 | $2,148 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 05:38 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $196.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 04:55 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $76.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 04:55 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.972 | $7,210 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 04:52 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.964 | $20.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 02:36 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $12.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 02:35 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $191.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:30 AM | Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more? | SELL YES | 0.995 | $2,181 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 03:57 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $10.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 09:17 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $7,980 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 12:15 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $1,060 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 11:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $2,326 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 04:50 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $7,562 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 03:14 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.996 | $16.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 02:55 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.996 | $38.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 02:34 AM | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY YES | 0.960 | $1,188 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 02:28 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.996 | $19.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 06:55 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $1,053 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 02:51 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $1,982 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 03:57 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $1,127 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 01:10 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $8,887 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 03:11 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.986 | $24.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 09:23 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.983 | $1,055 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 09:22 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $6,753 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 03:06 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $47.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 02:52 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.965 | $23.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 02:52 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $5,535 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 02:27 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $1,602 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 03:45 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $17.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 03:45 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $7,384 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 06:09 PM | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $1,199 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 01:36 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $2,113 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 03:13 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $3,888 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 03:49 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.979 | $1,126 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 02:40 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.978 | $9,193 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 02:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.979 | $9,989 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 02:45 AM | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL YES | 0.996 | $69.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 08:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $20.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 08:26 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.969 | $11.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 04:31 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $19.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 04:04 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $8,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 03:42 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $8,053 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 03:42 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $49.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 02:29 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $2,812 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 04:00 AM | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $11.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 03:59 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $1,007 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 03:57 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $14.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 12:52 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.973 | $9,730 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 04:00 PM | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $1,517 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 04:00 PM | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY YES | 0.995 | $11.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 03:59 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $3,048 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 12:45 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $24.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 03:56 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $99.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 03:55 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.965 | $5,457 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 03:53 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $19.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 03:53 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $67.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 01:20 PM | Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $2,149 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 12:55 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,864 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 12:53 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.955 | $6,518 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 28, 12:49 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $29.0K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 27, 03:13 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $15.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 03:03 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $2,882 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 03:03 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.982 | $13.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 03:03 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $73.5K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 27, 03:02 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $23.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 03:01 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.978 | $6,333 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 03:01 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $73.5K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 25, 07:43 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $1,777 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 07:42 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,663 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 07:42 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.934 | $3,585 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 07:41 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $10.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 07:13 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.985 | $1,862 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 03:04 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $6,470 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 24, 08:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $48.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 23, 12:32 PM | Netanyahu out by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $35.1K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 23, 12:32 PM | Netanyahu out by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.994 | $30.3K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 07:03 PM | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $2,967 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 11:32 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $6,303 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 05:48 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.939 | $6,412 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 05:48 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.966 | $3,549 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 09:00 PM | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.985 | $1,319 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 05:52 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $1,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 05:52 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $12.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 05:50 PM | Netanyahu out by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.982 | $68.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 02:19 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.984 | $1,648 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 02:19 PM | Netanyahu out by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $38.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 02:19 PM | 0x7cb525e8 | BUY NO | 0.999 | $99.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 04:37 PM | 0xc995b3a0 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $3,610 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 04:37 PM | 0xdd528795 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $5,842 | — (SELL) |