| Jun 13, 04:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.261 | $3,083 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 13, 03:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.244 | $1,669 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 13, 03:26 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.955 | $3,314 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 03:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.800 | $1,416 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.811 | $8,110 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 12:56 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | BUY NO | 0.783 | $5,084 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 07:15 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.113 | $3,249 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 05:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $2,294 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 01:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.327 | $3,347 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 06:46 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.430 | $3,748 | —— |
| Jun 11, 07:34 PM | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,861 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 07:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.176 | $4,099 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:26 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,683 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 07:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.139 | $1,558 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.839 | $25.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 07:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.822 | $8,093 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 07:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $2,371 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:07 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.351 | $4,724 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 06:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.317 | $6,306 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 06:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $2,835 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 11, 06:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.119 | $1,010 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 08:14 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.187 | $2,072 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 11:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $1,935 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 08:39 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.949 | $3,163 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 08:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $3,973 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 05:10 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.793 | $1,220 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 04:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.641 | $9,150 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 04:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.760 | $3,750 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 05:22 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $4,591 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 03:16 AM | Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | BUY NO | 0.517 | $1,712 | —— |
| Jun 8, 03:13 AM | Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL NO | 0.510 | $1,290 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 01:27 AM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.395 | $1,048 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 01:19 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $5,000 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 01:18 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $31.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 11:30 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $3,609 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:03 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $1,074 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:49 PM | Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.923 | $2,374 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:39 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.653 | $2,171 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 01:43 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.897 | $7,414 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 04:30 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $5,904 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 08:51 PM | Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | BUY YES | 0.972 | $8,043 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 08:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.050 | $1,687 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 09:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $1,871 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:30 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | SELL NO | 0.800 | $2,291 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 01:05 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? | BUY YES | 0.228 | $1,633 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 31, 01:05 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $2,800 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 02:00 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.330 | $1,374 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 07:17 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.620 | $2,768 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 07:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.080 | $2,117 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:59 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.961 | $4,407 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.232 | $1,267 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 29, 12:53 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.430 | $1,252 | —— |
| May 28, 04:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $2,600 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 04:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.317 | $1,597 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 11:22 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.986 | $15.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 10:59 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $2,665 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 09:54 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.809 | $8,713 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 05:02 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.919 | $5,167 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 12:52 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $2,306 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 10:58 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $9,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:58 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? | BUY NO | 0.907 | $1,327 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:17 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY YES | 0.875 | $13.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:17 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? | BUY NO | 0.136 | $2,040 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 10:02 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY YES | 0.885 | $4,929 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:16 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.360 | $1,273 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.560 | $3,683 | —— |
| May 24, 02:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $2,891 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $1,491 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.707 | $7,352 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 01:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.600 | $3,186 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 04:29 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.290 | $2,901 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 24, 03:30 AM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.365 | $1,804 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:41 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $2,575 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 09:08 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.699 | $1,673 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $3,743 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $2,531 | —— |
| May 23, 08:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.693 | $6,462 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.490 | $3,829 | —— |
| May 23, 06:26 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? | BUY NO | 0.207 | $1,109 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 22, 10:17 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | SELL YES | 0.907 | $9,395 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 10:16 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | SELL YES | 0.910 | $4,620 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 10:11 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | SELL YES | 0.911 | $1,070 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 08:37 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.615 | $1,436 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 06:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.949 | $23.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 06:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $1,566 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 05:57 PM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY NO | 0.255 | $1,145 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 21, 02:36 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $4,550 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 06:41 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,350 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 04:31 PM | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY NO | 0.353 | $1,178 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 01:28 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $1,402 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 09:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.238 | $3,709 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 18, 07:03 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | BUY NO | 0.817 | $3,594 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 07:03 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.667 | $4,217 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 07:03 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.490 | $1,212 | —— |
| May 15, 04:30 AM | Will Putin visit China by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.959 | $4,330 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 04:05 AM | Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.885 | $1,611 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 03:45 AM | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.855 | $1,481 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 01:36 AM | Iran leadership change by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $1,102 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 01:25 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.957 | $9,234 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 07:39 PM | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.691 | $2,298 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 07:39 PM | Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.746 | $1,493 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 07:38 PM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.633 | $1,053 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 07:38 PM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.609 | $1,474 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 06:31 PM | Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.972 | $3,222 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 01:32 AM | Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.928 | $2,737 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 09:24 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $1,982 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 02:07 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $6,300 | — (SELL) |
| May 12, 04:30 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $22.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 02:41 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $4,566 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 09:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.981 | $2,682 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 08:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.942 | $4,237 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 08:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $4,026 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 08:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.925 | $1,210 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 08:18 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.548 | $1,038 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 07:41 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.517 | $2,086 | —— |
| May 8, 07:07 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $1,107 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 06:51 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.590 | $2,622 | —— |
| May 8, 06:24 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,290 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 06:14 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.768 | $1,263 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 08:25 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 7? | SELL NO | 0.973 | $3,536 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 05:11 PM | Will Trump say "World Cup" during events with Brazilian president? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $1,109 | —— |
| May 7, 07:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.710 | $1,578 | — (SELL) |
| May 5, 11:34 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 7? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $3,416 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 11:07 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $4,033 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 09:27 PM | Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? | BUY NO | 0.380 | $5,692 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 1, 09:24 PM | Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? | BUY NO | 0.380 | $3,800 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 1, 06:41 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | BUY NO | 0.520 | $1,098 | —— |
| Apr 26, 12:31 AM | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during WHCA Dinner events? | BUY NO | 0.530 | $1,039 | —— |
| Apr 21, 08:33 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $1,267 | —— |
| Apr 21, 08:25 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.224 | $1,123 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 21, 07:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.709 | $2,068 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 07:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $3,086 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 18, 02:40 AM | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $4,450 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 02:27 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.880 | $4,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 10:02 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.288 | $3,118 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 17, 06:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.525 | $4,472 | —— |
| Apr 17, 04:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.480 | $3,934 | —— |
| Apr 17, 12:30 AM | 0x8df35e7d | BUY NO | 0.970 | $10.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 12:39 AM | 0x68beecc8 | BUY NO | 0.954 | $5,828 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 02:14 PM | Iran leadership change by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.875 | $2,862 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 03:15 AM | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.622 | $5,434 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 05:44 PM | Iran leadership change by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $1,846 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 07:44 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,850 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 11:34 PM | 0xc4710f42 | BUY | 0.480 | $5,330 | —— |
| Apr 7, 11:49 PM | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.991 | $24.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:06 PM | 0x773abaa5 | SELL YES | 0.960 | $11.0K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 11:03 PM | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $4,734 | —— |
| Apr 7, 10:53 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY YES | 0.900 | $10,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 10:47 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.595 | $5,678 | —— |
| Apr 7, 10:41 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY NO | 0.283 | $2,277 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 7, 10:33 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY YES | 0.879 | $10.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 10:33 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY YES | 0.780 | $17.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 02:53 AM | 0x594bd84d | BUY | 0.680 | $1,687 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 02:51 PM | 0xe67ecda1 | BUY NO | 0.999 | $2,972 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 08:11 AM | 0x3df2f195 | BUY NO | 0.969 | $1,790 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 07:40 AM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.842 | $4,209 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 01:02 AM | 0x910d133a | BUY YES | 0.996 | $3,501 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 12:08 AM | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL YES | 0.960 | $3,200 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 2, 12:07 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.520 | $2,046 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 11:53 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.520 | $2,810 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 11:45 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.548 | $12.8K | —— |
| Apr 1, 11:45 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.998 | $8,600 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 11:45 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.460 | $2,923 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 09:56 PM | 0x54864934 | BUY YES | 0.388 | $1,028 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 1, 08:09 PM | 0x54864934 | BUY YES | 0.445 | $1,237 | —— |
| Apr 1, 06:20 PM | 0x959c88f9 | BUY NO | 0.330 | $1,137 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 1, 05:22 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.450 | $2,860 | —— |
| Apr 1, 05:16 PM | 0xf3057939 | BUY NO | 0.970 | $10.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 04:56 PM | 0xf3057939 | BUY NO | 0.980 | $6,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 11:50 PM | 0x773abaa5 | SELL NO | 0.810 | $4,584 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 11:10 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.990 | $5,287 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 10:00 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY NO | 0.820 | $4,641 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 08:04 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.809 | $1,077 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 12:31 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.306 | $1,021 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 27, 12:19 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.370 | $3,700 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 27, 12:16 AM | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.318 | $4,561 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 26, 08:18 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.860 | $16.4K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 26, 08:13 PM | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.290 | $2,551 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Mar 26, 08:12 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.800 | $15.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 05:40 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.810 | $8,100 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 24, 09:17 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.470 | $1,050 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 24, 06:00 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $4,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 05:48 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.770 | $3,850 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |