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Casablanca10

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x1a29…9b2e with our methodology badges per row.

0x1a29b75d4bfb5d62b343e4abdd10b60c0ce19b2e·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
81
lifetime
PnL per $
+41%
historical realized
Win rate
39.9%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$475.4K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)
148
Distinct markets
22
Volume (90d)
$884.4K
avg $5,976 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$487.1K / $397.3K
net direction

Recent trades

last 148 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 12, 08:31 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?BUY NO0.886$3,084Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:40 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?BUY NO0.696$4,351Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:32 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?BUY NO0.650$1,622Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 08:39 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?BUY NO0.890$4,450Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 06:20 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?BUY NO0.910$1,138Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 06:19 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?BUY NO0.648$1,620Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 06:11 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?BUY NO0.800$1,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 06:10 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?BUY NO0.870$3,263Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 06:04 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?BUY NO0.910$2,275Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:39 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?SELL NO0.944$10.8K— (SELL)
May 26, 05:38 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?SELL NO0.949$4,912— (SELL)
May 25, 05:01 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?BUY NO0.920$1,331Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 01:39 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?SELL NO0.953$2,383— (SELL)
May 22, 05:55 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?SELL NO0.830$1,038— (SELL)
May 22, 05:35 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?SELL NO0.850$1,063— (SELL)
May 22, 05:34 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?SELL NO0.850$1,063— (SELL)
May 22, 04:40 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?SELL NO0.840$1,050— (SELL)
May 22, 02:15 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?SELL NO0.820$2,050— (SELL)
May 22, 01:30 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?SELL NO0.750$3,375— (SELL)
May 21, 06:21 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?SELL NO0.820$1,025— (SELL)
May 21, 05:25 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?SELL NO0.694$1,065— (SELL)
May 21, 03:28 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?SELL NO0.500$3,751— (SELL)
May 21, 03:26 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?SELL NO0.510$2,551— (SELL)
May 20, 08:09 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?SELL NO0.750$2,442— (SELL)
May 18, 01:58 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?BUY NO0.540$1,350
May 18, 01:56 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?BUY NO0.536$1,340
May 18, 01:55 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?BUY NO0.700$3,526Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 01:52 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?BUY NO0.690$2,556Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 01:49 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?BUY NO0.533$1,333
May 18, 01:34 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?SELL NO0.330$1,650— (SELL)
May 18, 01:21 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?BUY NO0.540$1,080
May 18, 09:07 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?SELL YES0.580$2,175— (SELL)
May 15, 01:03 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?SELL YES0.510$1,275— (SELL)
May 15, 12:31 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?SELL YES0.510$3,825— (SELL)
May 15, 10:51 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?SELL YES0.500$6,882— (SELL)
May 15, 10:47 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?SELL YES0.520$3,250— (SELL)
May 14, 05:45 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?SELL NO0.512$6,144— (SELL)
May 14, 04:21 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?SELL YES0.470$5,640— (SELL)
May 11, 01:05 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?BUY YES0.499$27.4K
May 10, 10:39 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?BUY NO0.520$2,407
May 10, 10:21 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?BUY NO0.500$2,153
May 10, 06:54 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?BUY NO0.590$2,301
May 10, 03:05 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?BUY NO0.600$18.0K
May 8, 06:01 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?BUY NO0.570$2,011
May 6, 04:40 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?BUY NO0.690$3,515Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 04:39 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?BUY NO0.680$1,294Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 04:33 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?BUY NO0.579$1,158
May 1, 06:38 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?SELL NO0.567$5,927— (SELL)
May 1, 04:07 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?BUY NO0.580$3,015
Apr 30, 06:34 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?BUY YES0.993$1,050Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 02:45 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?BUY NO0.999$1,549Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 02:45 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?BUY NO0.998$3,067Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 03:44 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?BUY YES0.200$2,400Conviction tier
Apr 29, 01:52 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?BUY YES0.200$10.0KConviction tier
Apr 29, 01:48 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?BUY YES0.999$25.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 08:41 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?SELL NO0.803$22.5K— (SELL)
Apr 29, 05:22 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?SELL NO0.930$8,021— (SELL)
Apr 28, 04:24 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?BUY NO0.817$38.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 01:27 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?SELL NO0.751$8,133— (SELL)
Apr 28, 07:09 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?SELL NO0.814$8,524— (SELL)
Apr 28, 06:08 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?SELL NO0.725$1,527— (SELL)
Apr 28, 02:51 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?SELL NO0.260$1,228— (SELL)
Apr 28, 02:34 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?SELL NO0.765$1,772— (SELL)
Apr 27, 06:31 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?SELL NO0.380$2,098— (SELL)
Apr 27, 11:36 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?SELL NO0.501$1,629— (SELL)
Apr 27, 08:57 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?SELL NO0.361$2,136— (SELL)
Apr 27, 08:30 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?SELL NO0.331$8,235— (SELL)
Apr 19, 10:39 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?BUY NO0.620$1,282Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 10:38 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?BUY NO0.730$7,217Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 10:35 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?BUY NO0.620$6,436Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 10:28 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?BUY NO0.619$6,115Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 10:17 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?BUY NO0.618$8,087Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 10:13 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?BUY NO0.603$8,175Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 05:05 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?SELL NO0.960$11.8K— (SELL)
Apr 17, 02:41 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?SELL YES0.940$8,999— (SELL)
Apr 17, 02:40 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?SELL YES0.939$47.4K— (SELL)
Apr 17, 02:26 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?SELL YES0.853$2,641— (SELL)
Apr 17, 02:05 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?SELL YES0.820$7,954— (SELL)
Apr 17, 01:47 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?SELL YES0.820$7,401— (SELL)
Apr 17, 12:51 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?BUY NO0.900$11.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 09:41 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?BUY NO0.649$6,403Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 01:49 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?SELL YES0.334$1,533— (SELL)
Apr 16, 05:57 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?SELL YES0.409$4,209— (SELL)
Apr 15, 06:23 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?BUY NO0.780$1,701Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 01:28 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?BUY NO0.770$22.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 09:48 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?SELL YES0.325$3,720— (SELL)
Apr 15, 07:20 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?SELL YES0.410$9,324— (SELL)
Apr 15, 07:00 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?SELL YES0.442$10.4K— (SELL)
Apr 12, 02:24 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?BUY YES0.150$5,072Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 9, 03:41 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?BUY YES0.690$6,503Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 10:28 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?BUY YES0.280$2,719Conviction tier
Apr 9, 07:41 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?SELL YES0.320$1,511— (SELL)
Apr 9, 07:10 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?SELL YES0.322$4,922— (SELL)
Apr 8, 02:09 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?SELL YES0.216$3,991— (SELL)
Apr 7, 07:20 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?SELL YES0.764$1,817— (SELL)
Apr 7, 11:54 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?BUY YES0.810$16.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 6, 07:42 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?BUY YES0.190$1,379Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 6, 02:50 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?BUY YES0.170$2,465Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 4, 11:56 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?BUY YES0.170$2,045Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 4, 08:51 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?BUY YES0.170$3,287Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 4, 08:32 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?BUY YES0.160$2,817Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 2, 09:24 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?BUY YES0.500$10.3K
Apr 2, 06:31 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?BUY YES0.192$1,860Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 31, 06:55 PM0xf64f880bSELL NO0.999$29.0K— (SELL)
Mar 31, 11:44 AM0xf6890c70BUY NO0.689$3,445Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 11:40 AM0xf6890c70BUY NO0.614$1,535Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 07:51 AM0xf6890c70BUY NO0.750$1,330Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 07:48 AM0xf6890c70BUY NO0.739$4,234Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 07:46 AM0xf6890c70BUY NO0.711$4,975Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 06:33 AM0xf6890c70BUY NO0.689$1,172Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 08:10 PM0xf6890c70SELL YES0.600$2,547— (SELL)
Mar 30, 07:22 PM0xf6890c70SELL YES0.471$1,976— (SELL)
Mar 30, 03:58 PM0x814657a1SELL NO0.894$8,474— (SELL)
Mar 30, 02:48 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?SELL NO0.840$1,954— (SELL)
Mar 30, 01:39 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?SELL NO0.840$1,002— (SELL)
Mar 29, 10:53 PM0xf64f880bBUY NO0.944$7,603Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 10:52 PM0xf64f880bBUY NO0.944$7,949Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 10:46 PM0xf64f880bBUY NO0.939$8,311Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 10:31 PM0xf64f880bBUY NO0.931$3,469Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 10:01 PM0x814657a1BUY NO0.750$7,982Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 07:05 PM0xc5300759SELL YES0.582$7,247— (SELL)
Mar 27, 07:01 PM0xc5300759SELL YES0.582$1,456— (SELL)
Mar 27, 06:48 PM0xc5300759SELL YES0.602$1,505— (SELL)
Mar 27, 06:25 PM0xc5300759SELL YES0.746$2,684— (SELL)
Mar 27, 06:19 PM0xc5300759SELL YES0.687$7,044— (SELL)
Mar 27, 08:23 AM0xc5300759BUY YES0.396$1,089Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 27, 07:50 AM0xc5300759BUY YES0.388$1,748Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 27, 06:01 AM0xc5300759BUY YES0.321$8,020Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 26, 06:32 PM0xc5300759SELL YES0.454$1,814— (SELL)
Mar 26, 04:33 PM0xc5300759BUY YES0.497$1,986
Mar 25, 09:43 AM0xf6890c70SELL NO0.806$3,021— (SELL)
Mar 25, 09:28 AM0xf6890c70SELL NO0.831$12.6K— (SELL)
Mar 25, 08:53 AM0xc5300759SELL NO0.740$11.1K— (SELL)
Mar 25, 08:35 AM0xc5300759BUY NO0.749$11.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 02:32 AM0x814657a1SELL NO0.883$2,014— (SELL)
Mar 24, 08:26 PM0xf64f880bBUY NO0.940$9,694Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 08:25 PM0x814657a1BUY NO0.889$9,143Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 05:19 PM0xf64f880bSELL NO0.930$10.8K— (SELL)
Mar 24, 04:13 PM0xf6890c70SELL NO0.751$7,508— (SELL)
Mar 24, 01:23 PM0xf6890c70SELL NO0.711$7,220— (SELL)
Mar 24, 01:19 PM0xc5300759SELL NO0.560$7,506— (SELL)
Mar 24, 08:11 AM0xf6890c70BUY NO0.717$7,005Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 01:51 PM0xf64f880bBUY NO0.910$1,200Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 01:50 PM0xf64f880bBUY NO0.920$16.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 01:43 PM0xf6890c70BUY NO0.730$7,300Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 12:48 PM0xc5300759BUY NO0.571$6,860
Mar 23, 12:45 PM0xf6890c70BUY NO0.719$14.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 11:41 AMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?BUY NO0.870$24.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

22 markets · sorted by volume