| Jun 13, 02:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.783 | $1,875 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 02:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.762 | $3,810 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 02:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.767 | $3,833 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.841 | $16.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.846 | $8,458 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 08:31 AM | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.051 | $1,035 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 06:56 AM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.260 | $1,257 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 8, 06:55 AM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.246 | $2,212 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 8, 06:54 AM | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.399 | $4,799 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 06:50 AM | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.360 | $2,124 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 06:42 AM | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.340 | $1,387 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 09:30 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.960 | $3,557 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:27 PM | Iran closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.970 | $4,060 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:25 PM | Iran closes its airspace by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.960 | $1,889 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 06:24 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $24.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 12:39 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $7,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:46 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $3,528 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:44 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.427 | $2,271 | —— |
| May 29, 02:40 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.369 | $3,155 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 04:20 AM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.822 | $16.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 10:41 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.490 | $3,920 | —— |
| May 11, 05:32 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.914 | $9,140 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 05:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $42.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 11:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.640 | $9,508 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 28, 06:10 PM | Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.670 | $2,010 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 04:31 PM | SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $6,787 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 20, 03:01 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY YES | 0.260 | $8,323 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 19, 07:23 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $2,402 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 07:19 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,951 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 03:54 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $2,840 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 05:23 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.897 | $1,364 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 02:40 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,217 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 07:05 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $3,539 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 18, 12:19 AM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $3,740 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 10:45 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $1,001 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 06:50 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $2,789 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 06:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $4,930 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 09:18 PM | 0x894a2611 | BUY NO | 0.797 | $5,147 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 02:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $1,577 | —— |
| Apr 14, 06:42 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $3,173 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 10:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $3,527 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 09:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $20.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 09:14 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.977 | $19.5K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 03:09 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.996 | $28.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 03:49 AM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $1,037 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 03:18 AM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY NO | 0.498 | $1,216 | —— |
| Apr 7, 11:48 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY NO | 0.615 | $3,343 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 09:53 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY NO | 0.845 | $2,534 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 09:39 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY NO | 0.907 | $4,825 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 09:35 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY NO | 0.906 | $5,004 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 03:09 PM | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $2,049 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Mar 26, 03:08 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $4,500 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 24, 12:25 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL YES | 0.340 | $4,747 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 04:12 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.486 | $1,052 | —— |
| Mar 23, 04:01 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.560 | $1,216 | —— |
| Mar 23, 04:00 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $21.7K | — (SELL) |