| Jun 13, 11:07 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.480 | $3,597 | —— |
| Jun 13, 11:07 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | SELL NO | 0.837 | $3,596 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 10:14 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | BUY NO | 0.794 | $4,808 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 10:13 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.645 | $4,808 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 10:12 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $1,423 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 10:08 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.652 | $1,620 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 10:09 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | BUY NO | 0.760 | $2,094 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 10:08 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.631 | $2,094 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 08:42 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | BUY NO | 0.836 | $10.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 08:41 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | SELL NO | 0.968 | $10.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 08:14 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | BUY NO | 0.713 | $1,316 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 08:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.540 | $1,317 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 06:10 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.906 | $10,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 06:09 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.768 | $11.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 05:18 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | BUY NO | 0.811 | $2,569 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 05:17 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.169 | $2,634 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 05:13 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $8,979 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 05:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.839 | $8,979 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 03:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.858 | $4,345 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 03:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.594 | $4,345 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:15 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.665 | $3,773 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 12:12 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.791 | $3,773 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 11:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $1,048 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 11:53 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.108 | $1,071 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 09:12 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.109 | $1,080 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 09:12 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $1,112 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 08:51 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,568 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 08:50 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.703 | $1,615 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 08:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.849 | $4,787 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:34 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.695 | $4,787 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 02:54 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.650 | $1,056 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 02:54 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.860 | $1,062 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 02:53 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.638 | $1,123 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 02:53 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.367 | $1,123 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 07:46 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.679 | $4,343 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 07:45 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.472 | $2,000 | —— |
| Jun 9, 07:44 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.860 | $6,373 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 07:34 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,013 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 07:33 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.860 | $1,050 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 10:35 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $9,659 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.543 | $1,024 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 10:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.680 | $3,189 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 10:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $6,249 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 10:44 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $8,535 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:44 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $8,535 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 10:28 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.595 | $2,854 | —— |
| Jun 7, 10:28 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $2,854 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 07:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.600 | $2,814 | —— |
| Jun 5, 07:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.979 | $2,814 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 05:13 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.730 | $1,591 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 05:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.961 | $1,841 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 05:07 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.576 | $2,136 | —— |
| Jun 4, 05:06 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $3,155 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 06:24 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.840 | $1,350 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 12:35 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $4,162 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 12:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 06:28 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.620 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 05:17 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $1,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 31, 12:33 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.724 | $4,025 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 12:32 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $1,315 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 12:31 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.592 | $1,323 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 08:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $3,734 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 08:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.557 | $3,735 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 01:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.480 | $1,117 | —— |
| May 30, 01:05 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.940 | $1,117 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 08:01 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.414 | $2,727 | —— |
| May 29, 08:00 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 08:00 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $4,727 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 07:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $3,011 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 07:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.860 | $3,011 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 07:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.701 | $4,014 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 07:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.860 | $4,015 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 06:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $3,982 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 06:21 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.604 | $3,982 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 05:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $2,380 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 05:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.962 | $2,380 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 05:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $2,379 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 05:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.962 | $2,379 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 08:58 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.749 | $2,841 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 08:58 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $2,850 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 08:57 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $4,550 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 08:56 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.971 | $4,477 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 08:30 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $1,081 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 06:02 PM | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.119 | $1,061 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 06:01 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.927 | $1,061 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 10:24 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,099 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 10:22 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.964 | $2,107 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 10:18 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $1,094 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 10:17 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $1,100 | — (SELL) |
| May 14, 06:22 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.671 | $2,148 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 06:20 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $2,148 | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 06:56 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $1,485 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 06:55 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.280 | $1,485 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 05:21 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.219 | $2,281 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 4, 05:07 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.353 | $1,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 4, 05:06 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $3,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 06:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 09:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $3,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 09:05 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $3,501 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 08:48 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.750 | $1,082 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 01:39 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.507 | $1,042 | —— |
| Apr 17, 01:39 PM | 0x5c2e6aef | SELL YES | 0.889 | $1,042 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 09:20 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.362 | $1,832 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 8, 09:19 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $1,831 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 05:20 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.377 | $1,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 8, 05:19 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.913 | $1,878 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 07:58 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.301 | $1,468 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 08:38 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.869 | $1,568 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 03:12 PM | 0x10d4b55e | SELL NO | 0.930 | $1,567 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 10:19 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.321 | $1,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 4, 10:18 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 08:36 PM | 0x4bbcf615 | SELL YES | 0.580 | $1,735 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 08:25 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $1,271 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 08:23 PM | 0x4bbcf615 | SELL YES | 0.611 | $1,285 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 11:20 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.349 | $1,531 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 3, 11:19 PM | 0x4bbcf615 | BUY YES | 0.450 | $3,639 | —— |
| Apr 3, 11:14 PM | 0x6cfe9791 | BUY YES | 0.649 | $4,453 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 11:08 PM | 0x9db5ea73 | BUY | 0.755 | $2,063 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 11:05 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.690 | $1,411 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 11:05 PM | 0x773abaa5 | SELL NO | 0.940 | $1,567 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 11:05 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.964 | $2,449 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 11:04 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.880 | $2,459 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 10:47 PM | 0xe564e1de | BUY | 0.970 | $1,814 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 10:47 PM | 0xe564e1de | BUY | 0.952 | $1,406 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 10:39 PM | 0xa36d5a0d | BUY | 0.782 | $1,083 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 10:34 PM | 0xccb99286 | BUY | 0.920 | $1,138 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 10:27 PM | 0x10d4b55e | BUY NO | 0.890 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 03:15 PM | 0xd0135a07 | SELL | 0.990 | $1,019 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 03:11 PM | 0x9e570fa9 | SELL NO | 0.950 | $2,672 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 02:24 PM | 0xbfd21429 | BUY | 0.718 | $1,019 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 02:24 PM | 0x4bbcf615 | SELL YES | 0.440 | $1,058 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 01:15 PM | 0x4bbcf615 | SELL YES | 0.440 | $1,058 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 10:22 AM | 0x4bbcf615 | BUY YES | 0.450 | $2,164 | —— |
| Mar 31, 05:34 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.352 | $1,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 31, 08:24 AM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.977 | $1,543 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 11:20 AM | 0x9e570fa9 | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,390 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 11:19 AM | 0xcab77c44 | SELL NO | 0.980 | $2,390 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 05:59 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.860 | $1,811 | — (SELL) |