| Jun 6, 04:11 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $9,064 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 03:29 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $242.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 11:08 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $4,940 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 11:07 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $84.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 08:30 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $24.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 08:29 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $139.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 05:58 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.880 | $1,719 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 05:57 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.830 | $1,458 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 05:55 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.830 | $1,648 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 05:54 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.830 | $3,450 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 05:54 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.830 | $3,415 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 05:03 AM | JD Vance out as VP by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $3,634 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 04:57 AM | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $8,609 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 02:17 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.979 | $38.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 05:20 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.978 | $69.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 10:50 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.976 | $11.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 10:50 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.976 | $4,647 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 10:50 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.976 | $3,139 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 05:11 AM | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $20.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 06:53 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $26.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 04:22 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $13.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 03:48 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.977 | $3,121 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 05:03 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.971 | $10.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 02:08 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.992 | $58.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 01:52 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $6,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 05:37 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $15.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 01:07 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.981 | $4,837 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 06:13 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.968 | $18.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 04:49 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $6,309 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 04:49 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $14.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 04:49 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $6,303 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 04:49 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $106.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:48 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,240 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 08:34 AM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $2,402 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 01:46 AM | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $36.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 12:16 AM | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $36.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 12:05 PM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $3,253 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 08:15 AM | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $4,601 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 07:03 PM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL NO | 0.990 | $99.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 07:02 PM | Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $67.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 07:02 PM | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $21.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 12, 02:31 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.993 | $49.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 08:17 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.993 | $1,486 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 08:16 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $23.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 06:30 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $2,176 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 06:06 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.992 | $33.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 06:05 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.991 | $7,995 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 06:03 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $29.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 06:00 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.991 | $33.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 05:01 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $11.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 01:10 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.978 | $14.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 01:06 AM | 0xaaacff0f | BUY YES | 0.980 | $2,871 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 01:06 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.985 | $22.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 01:05 AM | 0xaaacff0f | BUY YES | 0.975 | $4,120 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 01:05 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.974 | $5,607 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 01:04 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.950 | $6,869 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 04:12 PM | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? | BUY YES | 0.790 | $1,001 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 04:11 PM | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? | BUY YES | 0.780 | $17.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 04:09 PM | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? | BUY YES | 0.780 | $4,517 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 04:09 PM | Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? | SELL YES | 0.184 | $1,741 | — (SELL) |
| May 3, 04:08 PM | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? | BUY YES | 0.762 | $10.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 03:54 PM | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? | SELL YES | 0.310 | $3,100 | — (SELL) |
| May 3, 03:49 PM | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? | SELL YES | 0.331 | $4,996 | — (SELL) |
| May 3, 03:40 PM | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? | BUY YES | 0.648 | $1,832 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 03:38 PM | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? | BUY YES | 0.666 | $4,063 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 03:37 PM | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? | BUY YES | 0.870 | $15.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 02:49 PM | Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-03? | SELL YES | 0.990 | $3,059 | — (SELL) |
| May 3, 02:31 PM | Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-03? | BUY YES | 0.970 | $12.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 03:18 AM | Lakers vs. Rockets | BUY YES | 0.960 | $12.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 26, 03:08 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $30.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 26, 03:08 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $471.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 26, 03:03 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $2.99M | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 11:10 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $1.69M | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 24, 05:41 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $23.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 01:43 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.996 | $46.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 07:19 AM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.994 | $48.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 06:35 AM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.993 | $1,001 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 05:39 AM | 0x61ce3773 | BUY NO | 0.999 | $111.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 02:18 AM | 0x7cb525e8 | SELL NO | 0.998 | $13.4K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 30, 11:18 AM | 0x61ce3773 | BUY NO | 0.997 | $2,429 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 04:55 AM | 0x61ce3773 | BUY NO | 0.995 | $840.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 04:55 AM | 0x61ce3773 | BUY NO | 0.995 | $24.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 04:23 AM | 0x61ce3773 | BUY NO | 0.995 | $22.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 04:22 AM | 0xd25b2fc3 | BUY NO | 0.999 | $66.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 03:44 AM | 0x7cb525e8 | BUY NO | 0.997 | $105.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 03:44 AM | 0x7cb525e8 | BUY NO | 0.997 | $1.01M | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |